‘Dizzying’ changes to come to maritime industries – ClassNK

The issue covers efforts at the Planning and Design Center for Greener Ships (GSC), the development of onboard carbon capture systems, and the prospects for the electric vessel dubbed RoboShip.

For GSC, Ryutaro Kakiuchi detailed the latest regulatory developments in detail and forecasts the costs of various low- and zero-carbon fuels through 2050. In the outlook for zero-carbon fuels for ocean-going vessels, Kakiuchi highlights blue ammonia as the most advantageous zero-carbon fuel in terms of assumed production costs, although a fuel with N2O emission and handling concerns.

Cost and supply questions surround carbon-neutral synthetic fuels like methanol and methane, and emissions rights for CO2 captured from exhaust needs clarification while supply is the main concern around biofuels, although certain engine types may use biofuels as pilot fuel.

Referring to the current regulatory, technological and fuel landscape as uncertain and the image of the future “opaque,” GSC has nonetheless laid the groundwork for future greener vessel designs, including Japan’s first ammonia-fuelled panamax which was granted AiP earlier this year.

“Although blue ammonia is predicted to be relatively inexpensive among the various zero-carbon fuels, it is assumed that the prices will still be significantly higher than that of the current ship fuels,” said the report.

“From the viewpoint of ensuring a smooth energy transition, there are also strong opinions in favour of synthetic fuels (methane and methanol) because these fuels can use the existing infrastructure. Moreover, on short-distance routes, the total amount of energy required is small, suggesting the possibility of using hydrogen or electric power (fuel cells, batteries, etc.). Thus, various types of fuels are expected to be used in the future, depending on the route and type of ship.”

The report also warned that the introduction of carbon intensity measures could shorten the expected lifetime of vessels as the zero carbon transition plays out. The center continues to study proposed solutions in a bid to deepen its own understanding and inform customers, it said.

“Dizzying changes in world trends targeting the achievement of 2050 zero emissions, including regulatory moves, are expected in the future, and heightened awareness of the environmental value of decarbonization increases the pressure to adopt evaluation standards that are contrary to economic efficiency. It is also possible that the introduction of the CII rating system will have a serious impact that limits the product life of ships, even though a long operating life of more than 20 years after construction has been taken for granted until now. Based on these kinds of global trends, users who operate and manage ships must now make more difficult decisions than in the past regarding the business risks associated with the decarbonization of ships, and the types of ships which they should purchase during the transition period to zero carbon.”

Outside of its emissions focus, the issues also explores future fluidics analysis, changes and revisions to rules on ship survey and construction, corrosion additions, and recent IMO topics.